Trend Forecast and Prediction

Wanted to write an article for e27 on what I forecast and predict the trend to be for 2014. Similar to the one I did for 2012.

Ended up not doing it.

Why? 2 reasons.

Trend forecast and prediction are rarely right, and it can be misleading. It is easier said than done, and everyone nowadays are predicting stuff. Nothing wrong with that, because there is no (or minimal/negligible) cost in predictions.

2013 was the year of e-commerce in Asia. Nobody saw that coming. (Maybe some did but not to the scale that we witnessed this year.)

2013 saw the rise of bitcoin (cryptocurrency) and wearable tech. Nobody saw that coming.

2013 saw the highest number of tech IPOs. Nobody saw that coming.

2013 saw the rise of curated and viral content. Nobody saw that coming.

Similarly, in 2014, there are bound to be exciting unknowns happening that will be unpredictable.

The second reason is simple really, who am I to predict and give advice to readers? 🙂

Best thing to do, is to focus on what you are doing, scale it up and have some results. Keep the prediction to ourselves and ride on it ourselves, if we are so sure about it.

On a side note, been quite accurate on some of my personal picks of startups:

1. GridBlaze, whom I think was “potentially revolutionary” (article on Sep 2012), was acquired by a SV Startup in February 2013.

2. Noisestreet, rated it “Game Changing” (article on Nov 2012), is working with several clients and heard they are doing well, and funded. 🙂

3. Carousell, which I would put my own money in (article June 2013), have closed a S$1M investment in November 2013.

4. HalalTrip, which I recently covered last week, is raising a $2.5M round too. I think they are going to be big.

Have 2 more in my personal watch list for 2014. I should be a VC. I’m getting way over my head.


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